Aztec, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

350
FXUS65 KABQ 181121 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

- Minor to moderate heat risk is likely across a bulk of south
  central and southwest New Mexico today, with moderate to
  isolated major heat risk expanding to a majority of the state
  Thursday and Friday.

- Precipitation chances begin to increase late weekend and into
  early next week across central and eastern New Mexico,
  increasing the threat of flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

A cold front has backed thru eastern NM last night bringing cooler
temperatures and increased humidity in its wake, pushing thru the
gaps of the central mountain chain and into portions of the Rio
Grande Valley. High temperatures will fall back 10F to 15F from
yesterday`s levels, bringing relief from the early summer heat. That
said, it will still feel hot with highs in the upper 90s thru many
lower elevation areas of the southwestern half of the forecast area.
80s to near 90 will be present thru the northeastern half of the
forecast area. The next ridge of high pressure will begin to develop
over the desert southwest today, reaching 593dm at H5 over
southwestern NM this afternoon. A few stray virga showers will try
to develop along the central mountain chain where increased moisture
will ride upslope a bit. Low level moisture trapped beneath the
developing H5 ridge will advance further west tonight into Thursday
morning, losing some of its punch however. As the ridge builds to
594dm squarely over central NM Thursday, a few stray isolated and
slow moving thunderstorms will try to develop along the central
mountain chain. Otherwise, highs tick back up a few degrees hotter
compared to Wednesday`s forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

The 500mb ridge continues to slowly slide eastward Friday and into
the weekend as an approaching upper level trough from the PNW aides
this process. Temperatures still remain near to above average across
the forecast area, with Friday high temperatures peaking in the high
90s to low 100s for lower elevation areas. A few virga showers have
a slight chance of developing across the western and northern high
terrain through Friday afternoon, and a dry lightning strike or two
cannot be ruled out. Much of the same can be said for Saturday,
though the approaching upper trough begins to lower pressure heights
across western NM and therefore lowering high temperatures a few
degrees. Another round of virga showers may develop across much of
central NM along the high terrain. With each afternoon of Friday and
Saturday, forecast DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg support gusty and
erratic winds from any virga showers that do form.

Into the latter half of the weekend, the high continues to shift
east, settling over eastern CONUS by late day Sunday. Concurrently,
the upper level trough parks itself over the Intermountain West.
This setup is very likely to bring the state`s first true surge of
monsoonal moisture of the calendar year beginning Sunday and
continuing through at least Tuesday. This sets the stage for
repeated rounds of storms across much of central and eastern NM, and
with forecast PWAT values possible to exceed the 90th percentile by
Monday, efficient rainfall rates are likely, increasing the risk of
flash flooding. This is certainly a concern for the burn scar
complexes across the central mountain chain (HPCC, Ruidoso), but
flash flooding threats may exist off of the scars, especially in
poor drainage and/or low lying areas. Will need to monitor trends in
precipitation coverage and amounts as the weekend approaches.
Outside of precipitation, a stagnant pressure gradient stretching
northeast from east-central NM into the central Great Plains works
to develop breezy to locally windy conditions across much of eastern
NM this weekend and into the early portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

A cold front advanced thru eastern NM bringing a northeasterly to
easterly wind shift in its wake last night. Isolated patchy MVFR
ceilings are present over portions of the eastern plains but are
not impacting any TAF terminals. East canyon winds at KABQ have
subsided from their earlier peaks and will continue to lessen thru
the morning. Winds veer southerly most areas by this afternoon.
The exception will be far western NM along and west of the
Continental Divide beneath a new developing ridge of high pressure
where winds will generally by light and out of the west to
northwest. Winds back east to southeasterly tonight into Thursday
morning thru central and eastern NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

A cold front backing thru eastern NM and into portions of the Rio
Grande Valley has brought cooler temperatures and increased humidity
to the eastern half of the state. This will allow for good to
excellent recoveries along and east of the central mountain chain to
persist each morning. The abysmally dry conditions highlighted by
single-digit humidity each afternoon and poor recoveries remains
persistent for areas along and west of the Continental Divide, with
the Rio Grande Valley receiving a mixed bag of recoveries thru the
rest of the week. Prevailing winds will remain light and modest
today and Thursday turning out of the south as a new ridge of high
pressure builds over the state. After a brief cool down today,
temperatures trend hotter again thru Friday. Otherwise, daily rounds
of afternoon precipitation chances slowly tick up beginning with
isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon along the central mountain
chain, building to more scattered to numerous coverage by the late
weekend into early next week. The new ridge of high pressure slides
east of the region by this point, allowing for the season`s first
influx of monsoonal moisture to advect northward into NM, favoring
the eastern two-thirds of the state with beneficial moisture and
cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  57  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  89  45  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  89  56  90  62 /   0   0   5   5
Gallup..........................  92  49  96  55 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  89  55  91  59 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................  92  52  94  58 /   0   0   5   0
Quemado.........................  91  56  93  61 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  91  64  91  66 /   0   0  10   0
Datil...........................  89  57  89  60 /   0   0  10   5
Reserve.........................  99  52  99  56 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................ 102  57 102  61 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  83  47  85  53 /   0   0   5   0
Los Alamos......................  86  61  88  64 /   0   0  10   0
Pecos...........................  84  57  85  58 /  10   5  20   0
Cerro/Questa....................  84  54  86  58 /   5   0   5   0
Red River.......................  74  45  77  50 /   5   0  10   0
Angel Fire......................  79  39  80  46 /  10   0  10   0
Taos............................  87  49  89  54 /   0   0   5   0
Mora............................  81  49  82  51 /  10   5  20   0
Espanola........................  93  59  94  63 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Fe........................  87  62  88  63 /   5   0  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  91  61  91  62 /   5   0  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  68  93  71 /   0   0  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  66  97  69 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  65  99  69 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  66  97  70 /   0   0   5   0
Belen...........................  97  62  99  67 /   0   0   5   0
Bernalillo......................  97  64  98  68 /   0   0   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  97  62  99  67 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  98  65  97  69 /   0   0   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  97  63  99  68 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  93  66  94  68 /   0   0   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  97  65  97  69 /   0   0   5   0
Socorro......................... 100  67  99  71 /   0   0   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  58  88  62 /   0   0  10   0
Tijeras.........................  91  61  90  64 /   0   0  10   0
Edgewood........................  89  56  89  58 /   5   0  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  54  91  55 /   5   0  10   0
Clines Corners..................  83  57  86  58 /   5   5  10   0
Mountainair.....................  89  57  89  60 /   0   0  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  89  57  90  59 /   5   0  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  94  64  92  64 /   5   0  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  84  58  85  58 /  10   0  20   0
Capulin.........................  79  54  84  59 /  10  10  10   0
Raton...........................  84  52  89  57 /  10  10  10   0
Springer........................  85  54  89  59 /  10  10  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  83  54  86  56 /  10   5  10   0
Clayton.........................  84  59  91  67 /   5   5   0   0
Roy.............................  82  58  88  63 /  10   5   5   0
Conchas.........................  89  63  96  69 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  89  62  92  66 /   0   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  89  62  95  67 /   0   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  91  64  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  91  64  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  93  64  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  98  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  92  63  93  63 /   5   0  10   0
Elk.............................  90  59  91  59 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...24